Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R4
UFC Event·Saturday, October 6, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsConor McGregor: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(71.4%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Conor McGregor (53.5%).
- Conor McGregor has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Conor McGregor
Blue Corner
-190
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+165
(38%)
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20Conor McGregorL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Nate Diaz · Aug 16W
KOvs Eddie Alvarez · Nov 16W
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Jan 20L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jan 21L
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricConor McGregor
4.10
Strikes / min
5.32
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.66
65%
Strike defense
54%
5.32
TDs / 15 min
0.67
84%
Takedown defense
66%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.35Δ 1.69 — meaningful gap+0.66
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Khabib NurmagomedovConor McGregor
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Conor McGregor(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+41.2-41.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-511.0511.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13
Conor McGregor
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights14