Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, September 7, 2019·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsDustin Poirier: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(60.6%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Dustin Poirier (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Dustin Poirier
Blue Corner
-400
(80%)
Vegas Odds
+325
(24%)
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'10"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Justin Gaethje · Oct 20Dustin PoirierL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Chandler · Nov 22L
KOvs Justin Gaethje · Jul 23W
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Mar 24L
SUBvs Islam Makhachev · Jun 24L
vs Max Holloway · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricDustin Poirier
4.10
Strikes / min
5.24
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
4.57
65%
Strike defense
52%
5.32
TDs / 15 min
1.15
84%
Takedown defense
64%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.35Δ 1.68 — meaningful gap+0.67
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Khabib NurmagomedovDustin Poirier
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Dustin Poirier(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+189.0-189.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13
Dustin Poirier
StanceSouthpaw
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights31