Lightweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Khabib Nurmagomedov won · SUB
UFC Event·Saturday, October 24, 2020·Abu Dhabi, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates, United Arab Emirates
Style matchupKhabib Nurmagomedov: WrestlervsJustin Gaethje: Pressure fighter
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins(59.4%)
Actual result: Khabib Nurmagomedov wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Khabib Nurmagomedov has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
Tale of the Tape
Khabib Nurmagomedov
Red Corner
VS
Justin Gaethje
Blue Corner
-315
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+255
(28%)
37
Age
37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Khabib NurmagomedovW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Michael Johnson · Nov 16W
vs Edson Barboza · Dec 17W
vs Al Iaquinta · Apr 18W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Oct 18W
SUBvs Dustin Poirier · Sep 19Justin GaethjeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 23W
KOvs Dustin Poirier · Jul 23L
KOvs Max Holloway · Apr 24W
vs Rafael Fiziev · Mar 25W
vs Paddy Pimblett · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Khabib NurmagomedovMetricJustin Gaethje
4.10
Strikes / min
6.48
1.75
Strikes absorbed / min
7.05
65%
Strike defense
51%
5.32
TDs / 15 min
0.33
84%
Takedown defense
74%
0.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.35Δ 2.92 — meaningful gap-0.57
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Khabib NurmagomedovJustin Gaethje
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Khabib Nurmagomedov(10 fights)Justin Gaethje(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+110.5-110.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+245.0-245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.91.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
Khabib Nurmagomedov
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights13
Justin Gaethje
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights15