Lightweight
3 Rounds
Paddy Pimblett won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2024·Manchester, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupKing Green: Pressure fightervsPaddy Pimblett: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: King Green wins(53.8%)
Actual result: Paddy Pimblett wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Paddy Pimblett threatens submissions; King Green has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- King Green has 20pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- King Green has 28pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
King Green
Red Corner
VS
Paddy Pimblett
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
-195
(66%)
39
Age
31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'10"
180.34 cm
Reach
185.42 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
King GreenW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jalin Turner · Dec 23W
vs Jim Miller · Apr 24L
KOvs Mauricio Ruffy · Mar 25W
vs Lance Gibson Jr. · Dec 25W
KOvs Daniel Zellhuber · Feb 26Paddy Pimblett
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Jul 22W
vs Jared Gordon · Dec 22W
vs Tony Ferguson · Dec 23W
KOvs Michael Chandler · Apr 25L
vs Justin Gaethje · Jan 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
King GreenMetricPaddy Pimblett
6.46
Strikes / min
5.49
3.55
Strikes absorbed / min
3.89
62%
Strike defense
42%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
0.69
72%
Takedown defense
44%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+2.91Δ 1.31 — meaningful gap+1.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
King GreenPaddy Pimblett
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
King Green(8 fights)Paddy Pimblett(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-40.740.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-119.0119.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
King Green
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights8
Paddy Pimblett
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach73.0"
Fights8