Welterweight
3 Rounds
Alex Oliveira won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 30, 2015·Goiania, Goias, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupKJ Noons: StrikervsAlex Oliveira: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Alex Oliveira wins(50.2%)
Actual result: Alex Oliveira wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Alex Oliveira enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- KJ Noons has 19pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
- Alex Oliveira has a 15cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
KJ Noons
Red Corner
VS
Alex Oliveira
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
43
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'11"
177.8 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
KJ Noons
oldest →latest
L
vs Donald Cerrone · May 13W
vs George Sotiropoulos · Oct 13W
KOvs Sam Stout · Apr 14L
vs Joshua Burkman · Feb 16Alex OliveiraL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Peter Sobotta · Jul 20L
SUBvs Shavkat Rakhmonov · Oct 20L
SUBvs Randy Brown · Apr 21L
vs Niko Price · Oct 21L
KOvs Kevin Holland · Mar 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
KJ NoonsMetricAlex Oliveira
3.68
Strikes / min
2.99
3.78
Strikes absorbed / min
2.55
65%
Strike defense
46%
0.08
TDs / 15 min
2.35
68%
Takedown defense
63%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.10evenly matched on net striking+0.44
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
KJ NoonsAlex Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
KJ Noons(5 fights)Alex Oliveira(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+39.0-39.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+339.0-339.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
KJ Noons
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights5
Alex Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights21