Middleweight
3 Rounds
Brendan Allen won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 1, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupKrzysztof Jotko: Well-roundedvsBrendan Allen: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Brendan Allen wins(56.1%)
Actual result: Brendan Allen wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brendan Allen threatens submissions; Krzysztof Jotko has lost 33% of fights by sub.
- Krzysztof Jotko has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Krzysztof Jotko has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Krzysztof Jotko (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Krzysztof Jotko
Red Corner
VS
Brendan Allen
Blue Corner
-125
(56%)
Vegas Odds
+105
(49%)
36
Age
30
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
195.58 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Krzysztof JotkoW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Alen Amedovski · Apr 19W
vs Eryk Anders · May 20L
vs Sean Strickland · May 21W
vs Misha Cirkunov · Oct 21W
vs Gerald Meerschaert · Apr 22Brendan AllenW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Curtis · Apr 24L
vs Nassourdine Imavov · Sep 24L
vs Anthony Hernandez · Feb 25W
vs Marvin Vettori · Jul 25W
KOvs Reinier de Ridder · Oct 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Krzysztof JotkoMetricBrendan Allen
2.98
Strikes / min
3.59
2.23
Strikes absorbed / min
3.62
57%
Strike defense
47%
1.33
TDs / 15 min
1.56
82%
Takedown defense
56%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.75evenly matched on net striking-0.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Krzysztof JotkoBrendan Allen
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Krzysztof Jotko(10 fights)Brendan Allen(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-3.93.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+42.0-42.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
Krzysztof Jotko
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights16
Brendan Allen
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights18