Middleweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Daukaus won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, November 15, 2025·New York City, New York, USA, USA
Style matchupKyle Daukaus: WrestlervsGerald Meerschaert: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Kyle Daukaus wins(65.3%)
Actual result: Kyle Daukaus wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gerald Meerschaert enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Gerald Meerschaert has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Kyle Daukaus has 42pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Kyle Daukaus
Red Corner
VS
Gerald Meerschaert
Blue Corner
-480
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+370
(21%)
33
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'1"
193.04 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle Daukaus
oldest →latest
L
vs Phil Hawes · May 21W
SUBvs Jamie Pickett · Feb 22L
KOvs Roman Dolidze · Jun 22L
KOvs Eryk Anders · Dec 22W
KOvs Michel Pereira · Aug 25Gerald MeerschaertL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 24W
SUBvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 24L
SUBvs Reinier de Ridder · Nov 24L
vs Brad Tavares · Apr 25L
KOvs Michal Oleksiejczuk · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle DaukausMetricGerald Meerschaert
3.32
Strikes / min
2.95
2.90
Strikes absorbed / min
3.44
42%
Strike defense
53%
2.08
TDs / 15 min
1.70
82%
Takedown defense
40%
2.10
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.42evenly matched on net striking-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kyle DaukausGerald Meerschaert
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Daukaus(8 fights)Gerald Meerschaert(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-1.71.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-7.07.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.4-1.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Kyle Daukaus
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights8
Gerald Meerschaert
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights25