Lightweight
3 Rounds
Kyle Nelson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 18, 2025·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Style matchupKyle Nelson: Well-roundedvsMatt Frevola: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Matt Frevola wins(54.8%)
Actual result: Kyle Nelson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Frevola is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Kyle Nelson has lost 67% of fights by KO.
- Kyle Nelson has 26pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Kyle Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Matt Frevola
Blue Corner
-132
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+112
(47%)
35
Age
35
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'9"
180.34 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle NelsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Blake Bilder · Jun 23W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Matt FrevolaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Genaro Valdez · Jan 22W
KOvs Ottman Azaitar · Nov 22W
KOvs Drew Dober · May 23L
KOvs Benoit Saint Denis · Nov 23L
KOvs Fares Ziam · Sep 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle NelsonMetricMatt Frevola
3.60
Strikes / min
3.30
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
3.76
53%
Strike defense
56%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
2.34
66%
Takedown defense
40%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.98evenly matched on net striking-0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kyle NelsonMatt Frevola
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Matt Frevola(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-32.432.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+21.0-21.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11
Matt Frevola
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights10