Featherweight
3 Rounds
Matt Sayles won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, May 4, 2019·Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, Canada
Style matchupKyle Nelson: Well-roundedvsMatt Sayles: Elusive striker
The well-rounded fighter has more dimensions. The elusive striker needs to win the striking exchanges clearly.
Model Prediction: Kyle Nelson wins(66.9%)
Actual result: Matt Sayles wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matt Sayles enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Matt Sayles has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Kyle Nelson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Kyle Nelson
Red Corner
VS
Matt Sayles
Blue Corner
+165
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-190
(66%)
35
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'7"
180.34 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Kyle Nelson
oldest →latest
W
vs Fernando Padilla · Sep 23W
KOvs Bill Algeo · Mar 24L
KOvs Steve Garcia · Sep 24W
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 25L
KOvs Terrance McKinney · Mar 26Matt SaylesL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Sheymon Moraes · Aug 18L
SUBvs Bryce Mitchell · Dec 19L
SUBvs Jordan Leavitt · Dec 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Kyle NelsonMetricMatt Sayles
3.60
Strikes / min
4.83
4.58
Strikes absorbed / min
2.81
53%
Strike defense
61%
1.18
TDs / 15 min
0.36
66%
Takedown defense
81%
0.50
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.98Δ 3.00 — meaningful gap+2.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Kyle NelsonMatt Sayles
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Kyle Nelson(10 fights)Matt Sayles(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-126.0126.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Kyle Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11
Matt Sayles
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights4