Lightweight
3 Rounds
Lando Vannata won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, February 9, 2019·Melbourne, Victoria, Australia, Australia
Model Prediction: Lando Vannata wins(65.5%)
Actual result: Lando Vannata wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lando Vannata has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lando Vannata has 38pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Marcos Mariano (52.9%).
- Marcos Mariano has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Lando Vannata
Red Corner
VS
Marcos Mariano
Blue Corner
-450
(82%)
Vegas Odds
+360
(22%)
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
6'1"
180.34 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lando VannataL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Yancy Medeiros · Feb 20L
vs Bobby Green · Aug 20W
vs Mike Grundy · May 21L
SUBvs Charles Jourdain · Apr 22L
vs Daniel Zellhuber · Apr 23Marcos Mariano
oldest →latest
L
vs Caludio Puelles · Sep 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lando VannataMetricMarcos Mariano
4.52
Strikes / min
0.25
4.71
Strikes absorbed / min
2.11
54%
Strike defense
43%
1.24
TDs / 15 min
0.00
66%
Takedown defense
28%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.19Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-1.86
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lando VannataMarcos Mariano
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lando Vannata(10 fights)Marcos Mariano(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-25.425.4
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.70.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-48.048.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
Lando Vannata
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights12
Marcos Mariano
StanceSwitch
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights2