Welterweight
5 Rounds
🏆 Title Bout
Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, December 16, 2023·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsColby Covington: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(70.3%)
Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Colby Covington
Blue Corner
—
Vegas Odds
—
34
Age
38
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Aug 22W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25Colby Covington
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Kamaru Usman · Dec 19W
KOvs Tyron Woodley · Sep 20L
vs Kamaru Usman · Nov 21W
vs Jorge Masvidal · Mar 22L
KOvs Joaquin Buckley · Dec 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricColby Covington
2.60
Strikes / min
3.81
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.09
52%
Strike defense
54%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
3.64
63%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.72
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leon EdwardsColby Covington
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Colby Covington(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+44.7-44.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-378.0378.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Leon Edwards
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19
Colby Covington
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights17