Welterweight
3 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Sunday, May 8, 2016·Rotterdam, Zuid-Holland, Netherlands, Netherlands
Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsDominic Waters: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(71.6%)
Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Leon Edwards has 13pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Leon Edwards has 35pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Leon Edwards (53.5%).
- Dominic Waters has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Dominic Waters
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'1"
187.96 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25Dominic WatersL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs George Sullivan · Jul 15L
KOvs Dong Hyun Kim · Nov 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricDominic Waters
2.60
Strikes / min
0.48
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
2.53
52%
Strike defense
39%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
4.07
63%
Takedown defense
28%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16Δ 2.21 — meaningful gap-2.05
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leon EdwardsDominic Waters
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Dominic Waters(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+32.3-32.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-21.021.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Leon Edwards
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19
Dominic Waters
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights3