Welterweight
3 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 16, 2019·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsGunnar Nelson: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Gunnar Nelson wins(53.6%)
Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Gunnar Nelson (54.1%).
Tale of the Tape
Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Gunnar Nelson
Blue Corner
-140
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+120
(45%)
34
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
6'2"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25Gunnar Nelson
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Alex Oliveira · Dec 18L
vs Gilbert Burns · Sep 19W
vs Takashi Sato · Mar 22W
SUBvs Bryan Barberena · Mar 23L
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricGunnar Nelson
2.60
Strikes / min
1.77
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.06
52%
Strike defense
48%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
2.00
63%
Takedown defense
68%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16Δ 1.45 — meaningful gap-1.29
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leon EdwardsGunnar Nelson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Gunnar Nelson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+26.4-26.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+168.0-168.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Leon Edwards
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19
Gunnar Nelson
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights16