Welterweight
3 Rounds
Leon Edwards won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, June 12, 2021·Glendale, Arizona, USA, USA
Style matchupLeon Edwards: Well-roundedvsNate Diaz: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Leon Edwards wins(57.4%)
Actual result: Leon Edwards wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leon Edwards enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Leon Edwards has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Leon Edwards
Red Corner
VS
Nate Diaz
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+355
(22%)
34
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leon EdwardsL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Kamaru Usman · Mar 23W
vs Colby Covington · Dec 23L
vs Belal Muhammad · Jul 24L
SUBvs Sean Brady · Mar 25L
KOvs Carlos Prates · Nov 25Nate Diaz
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Conor McGregor · Mar 16L
vs Conor McGregor · Aug 16W
vs Anthony Pettis · Aug 19L
KOvs Jorge Masvidal · Nov 19W
SUBvs Tony Ferguson · Sep 22Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leon EdwardsMetricNate Diaz
2.60
Strikes / min
4.57
2.44
Strikes absorbed / min
3.77
52%
Strike defense
52%
1.25
TDs / 15 min
1.05
63%
Takedown defense
41%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.16evenly matched on net striking+0.80
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leon EdwardsNate Diaz
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leon Edwards(10 fights)Nate Diaz(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+98.3-98.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+105.0-105.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Leon Edwards
StanceSouthpaw
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights19
Nate Diaz
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights18