Lightweight
3 Rounds
Leonardo Mafra won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 21, 2015·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Leonardo Mafra wins(61.5%)
Actual result: Leonardo Mafra wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leonardo Mafra enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Leonardo Mafra has 55pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Cain Carrizosa has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Leonardo Mafra
Red Corner
VS
Cain Carrizosa
Blue Corner
-170
(63%)
Vegas Odds
+150
(40%)
37
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'10"
Height
5'8"
177.8 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leonardo MafraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Thiago Perpetuo · Jun 12L
SUBvs Rick Story · Jul 14L
KOvs Stevie Ray · Jul 15Cain Carrizosa
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Chris Wade · Aug 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leonardo MafraMetricCain Carrizosa
4.55
Strikes / min
2.72
4.38
Strikes absorbed / min
5.80
43%
Strike defense
51%
2.12
TDs / 15 min
0.00
69%
Takedown defense
14%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.17Δ 3.25 — meaningful gap-3.08
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leonardo MafraCain Carrizosa
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leonardo Mafra(4 fights)Cain Carrizosa(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-16.116.1
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+45.0-45.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.0-0.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.1-1.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Leonardo Mafra
StanceOrthodox
Height70.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights4
Cain Carrizosa
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach—
Fights2