Lightweight
3 Rounds
Grant Dawson won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, March 20, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLeonardo Santos: Well-roundedvsGrant Dawson: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Grant Dawson wins(51.1%)
Actual result: Grant Dawson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Leonardo Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Leonardo Santos has 20pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Grant Dawson (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Leonardo Santos
Red Corner
VS
Grant Dawson
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
46
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
6'0"
Height
5'10"
190.5 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Leonardo SantosL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Adriano Martins · Oct 16W
KOvs Stevie Ray · Jun 19W
vs Roman Bogatov · Jul 20L
SUBvs Clay Guida · Dec 21L
vs Jared Gordon · Aug 22Grant Dawson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs King Green · Oct 23W
vs Joe Solecki · Jun 24W
KOvs Rafa Garcia · Oct 24W
vs Diego Ferreira · Jan 25L
KOvs Manuel Torres · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Leonardo SantosMetricGrant Dawson
2.82
Strikes / min
3.14
3.40
Strikes absorbed / min
2.14
54%
Strike defense
44%
0.88
TDs / 15 min
3.58
86%
Takedown defense
66%
0.20
Sub atts / 15 min
1.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.58Δ 1.58 — meaningful gap+1.00
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Leonardo SantosGrant Dawson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Leonardo Santos(10 fights)Grant Dawson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+55.0-55.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Leonardo Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10
Grant Dawson
StanceSwitch
Height70.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights13