Middleweight
3 Rounds
Derek Brunson won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 30, 2014·Sacramento, California, USA, USA
Style matchupLorenz Larkin: Elusive strikervsDerek Brunson: Wrestler
The wrestler must close distance through high-output striking. The elusive striker thrives in space.
Model Prediction: Derek Brunson wins(54.2%)
Actual result: Derek Brunson wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lorenz Larkin is a KO finisher (60% of wins). Derek Brunson has lost 86% of fights by KO.
- Lorenz Larkin has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Derek Brunson (53.5%).
- Derek Brunson has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Lorenz Larkin
Red Corner
VS
Derek Brunson
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-165
(62%)
39
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'11"
Height
6'1"
182.88 cm
Reach
195.58 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lorenz LarkinW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs John Howard · Jan 15W
KOvs Santiago Ponzinibbio · Jun 15L
vs Albert Tumenov · Jan 16W
vs Jorge Masvidal · May 16W
KOvs Neil Magny · Aug 16Derek BrunsonL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Edmen Shahbazyan · Aug 20W
vs Kevin Holland · Mar 21W
SUBvs Darren Till · Sep 21L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Feb 22L
KOvs Dricus Du Plessis · Mar 23Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lorenz LarkinMetricDerek Brunson
3.53
Strikes / min
3.51
2.74
Strikes absorbed / min
3.05
63%
Strike defense
51%
0.27
TDs / 15 min
3.14
79%
Takedown defense
85%
0.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.79evenly matched on net striking+0.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lorenz LarkinDerek Brunson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lorenz Larkin(10 fights)Derek Brunson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-42.442.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-115.0115.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
Lorenz Larkin
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights10
Derek Brunson
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights21