Flyweight
3 Rounds
Brandon Moreno won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 1, 2016·Portland, Oregon, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsBrandon Moreno: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Brandon Moreno wins(50.7%)
Actual result: Brandon Moreno wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Brandon Moreno has 33pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Brandon Moreno
Blue Corner
-525
(84%)
Vegas Odds
+450
(18%)
34
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Brandon MorenoL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Brandon Royval · Feb 24W
vs Amir Albazi · Nov 24W
vs Steve Erceg · Mar 25L
KOvs Tatsuro Taira · Dec 25L
vs Lone'er Kavanagh · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricBrandon Moreno
4.67
Strikes / min
3.84
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.64
53%
Strike defense
59%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
1.36
32%
Takedown defense
65%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaBrandon Moreno
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Brandon Moreno(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.7-64.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-46.546.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Brandon Moreno
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights18