Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Casey Kenney won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, May 30, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsCasey Kenney: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(57.3%)
Actual result: Casey Kenney wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Casey Kenney has 29pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Casey Kenney (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Casey Kenney
Blue Corner
+230
(30%)
Vegas Odds
-270
(73%)
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Casey KenneyL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Merab Dvalishvili · Feb 20W
vs Heili Alateng · Oct 20W
vs Nathaniel Wood · Oct 20L
vs Dominick Cruz · Mar 21L
vs Song Yadong · Aug 21Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricCasey Kenney
4.67
Strikes / min
4.85
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.67
53%
Strike defense
58%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
1.09
32%
Takedown defense
61%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.18
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaCasey Kenney
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Casey Kenney(8 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-7.57.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+154.0-154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.9-2.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Casey Kenney
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights8