Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO
UFC Event·Saturday, December 5, 2020·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsJose Quinonez: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(65.5%)
Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Louis Smolka enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Jose Quinonez has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Jose Quinonez has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Jose Quinonez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Jose Quinonez
Blue Corner
-139
(58%)
Vegas Odds
+112
(47%)
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Jose Quinonez
oldest →latest
W
vs Diego Rivas · Aug 17W
vs Teruto Ishihara · Feb 18L
SUBvs Nathaniel Wood · Mar 19W
vs Carlos Huachin · Sep 19L
KOvs Sean O'Malley · Mar 20Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricJose Quinonez
4.67
Strikes / min
3.60
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
53%
Strike defense
64%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
2.70
32%
Takedown defense
42%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.60
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaJose Quinonez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Jose Quinonez(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-33.333.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-84.084.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Jose Quinonez
StanceSouthpaw
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights9