Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won
UFC Event·Saturday, December 30, 2017·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Matheus Nicolau wins(51.7%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Matheus Nicolau has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Matheus Nicolau has 58pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
+170
(37%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricMatheus Nicolau
4.67
Strikes / min
3.31
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
53%
Strike defense
65%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
1.22
32%
Takedown defense
90%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-23.523.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-281.0281.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-1.51.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.9-1.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11