Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Matt Schnell won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 9, 2019·Wichita, Kansas, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsMatt Schnell: Pressure fighter
The pressure fighter risks getting subbed if they over-commit on the ground.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(68.1%)
Actual result: Matt Schnell wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Matt Schnell has lost 56% of fights by KO.
- Matt Schnell threatens submissions; Louis Smolka has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Matt Schnell
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
34
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'8"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Matt Schnell
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Matheus Nicolau · Dec 22L
KOvs Steve Erceg · Mar 24L
SUBvs Cody Durden · Sep 24W
vs Jimmy Flick · Apr 25L
SUBvs Joseph Morales · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricMatt Schnell
4.67
Strikes / min
4.07
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
4.11
53%
Strike defense
55%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.60
32%
Takedown defense
43%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.04
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaMatt Schnell
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Matt Schnell(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.2-5.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-154.0154.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.40.4
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Matt Schnell
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights16