Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Louis Smolka won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, September 14, 2019·Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada, Canada
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(82.1%)
Actual result: Louis Smolka wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Louis Smolka is a KO finisher (50% of wins). Ryan MacDonald has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Louis Smolka has 32pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Ryan MacDonald (52.9%).
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Ryan MacDonald
Blue Corner
-230
(70%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
34
Age
33
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
5'9"
Height
5'11"
172.72 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Ryan MacDonald
oldest →latest
L
vs Chris Gutierrez · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricRyan MacDonald
4.67
Strikes / min
2.28
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
6.49
53%
Strike defense
45%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.00
32%
Takedown defense
0%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 4.77 — meaningful gap-4.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaRyan MacDonald
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Ryan MacDonald(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+11.2-11.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+14.0-14.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+3.4-3.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Ryan MacDonald
StanceSwitch
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights2