Flyweight
3 Rounds
Tim Elliott won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, April 15, 2017·Kansas City, Missouri, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsTim Elliott: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(56.4%)
Actual result: Tim Elliott wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Tim Elliott has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Tim Elliott (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Tim Elliott
Blue Corner
+160
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-185
(65%)
34
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis SmolkaL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Vince Morales · Dec 21L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Tim ElliottW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Tagir Ulanbekov · Mar 22W
vs Victor Altamirano · Jun 23L
SUBvs Muhammad Mokaev · Oct 23W
SUBvs Sumudaerji · Dec 23W
SUBvs Kai Asakura · Aug 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricTim Elliott
4.67
Strikes / min
3.51
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.00
53%
Strike defense
56%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
3.61
32%
Takedown defense
59%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking+0.51
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaTim Elliott
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Tim Elliott(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+64.6-64.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-27.027.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Tim Elliott
StanceSouthpaw
Height67.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights21