Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Vince Morales won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, December 4, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLouis Smolka: Submission grapplervsVince Morales: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Louis Smolka wins(65.9%)
Actual result: Vince Morales wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Vince Morales enters on a 5-fight losing streak.
- Vince Morales has 31pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Louis Smolka
Red Corner
VS
Vince Morales
Blue Corner
-165
(62%)
Vegas Odds
+145
(41%)
34
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'9"
Height
5'7"
172.72 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Louis Smolka
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Matt Schnell · Mar 19W
KOvs Ryan MacDonald · Sep 19L
SUBvs Casey Kenney · May 20W
KOvs Jose Quinonez · Dec 20L
KOvs Davey Grant · May 22Vince MoralesL5 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Jonathan Martinez · May 22L
vs Miles Johns · Nov 22L
vs Taylor Lapilus · Sep 24L
vs Elijah Smith · Feb 25L
vs Raul Rosas Jr. · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Louis SmolkaMetricVince Morales
4.67
Strikes / min
3.54
4.11
Strikes absorbed / min
3.91
53%
Strike defense
54%
1.69
TDs / 15 min
0.71
32%
Takedown defense
63%
1.80
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56evenly matched on net striking-0.37
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Louis SmolkaVince Morales
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Louis Smolka(10 fights)Vince Morales(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+23.8-23.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+245.0-245.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+1.6-1.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Louis Smolka
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights17
Vince Morales
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights11