Bantamweight
3 Rounds
Luan Lacerda won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupLuan Lacerda: WrestlervsSaimon Oliveira: Submission grappler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Luan Lacerda wins(58.5%)
Actual result: Luan Lacerda wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luan Lacerda enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Saimon Oliveira enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Luan Lacerda has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Luan Lacerda
Red Corner
VS
Saimon Oliveira
Blue Corner
-390
(80%)
Vegas Odds
-108
(52%)
33
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'4"
180.34 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luan LacerdaL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Cody Stamann · Jan 23L
KOvs Da'Mon Blackshear · Jun 23L
vs Hecher Sosa · Mar 26Saimon OliveiraL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Tony Gravely · Jan 22L
KOvs Daniel Marcos · Jan 23L
KOvs David Martinez · Mar 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luan LacerdaMetricSaimon Oliveira
4.06
Strikes / min
2.62
6.15
Strikes absorbed / min
3.87
49%
Strike defense
45%
2.82
TDs / 15 min
1.18
66%
Takedown defense
36%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
1.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.09evenly matched on net striking-1.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luan LacerdaSaimon Oliveira
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luan Lacerda(4 fights)Saimon Oliveira(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+15.2-15.2
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+665.0-665.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Luan Lacerda
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights4
Saimon Oliveira
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4