Featherweight
3 Rounds
Michael Aswell Jr. won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupLucas Almeida: Pressure fightervsMichael Aswell Jr.: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Lucas Almeida wins(55.1%)
Actual result: Michael Aswell Jr. wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Michael Aswell Jr. is a KO finisher (100% of wins). Lucas Almeida has lost 50% of fights by KO.
Tale of the Tape
Lucas Almeida
Red Corner
VS
Michael Aswell Jr.
Blue Corner
+215
(32%)
Vegas Odds
-260
(72%)
35
Age
25
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'11"
Height
5'8"
180.34 cm
Reach
175.26 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lucas Almeida
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Michael Trizano · Jun 22L
SUBvs Pat Sabatini · Jun 23L
KOvs Andre Fili · Dec 23W
vs Timmy Cuamba · Jun 24L
vs Danny Silva · Mar 25Michael Aswell Jr.L2 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Bolaji Oki · May 25L
vs Luke Riley · Mar 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lucas AlmeidaMetricMichael Aswell Jr.
4.94
Strikes / min
7.79
5.36
Strikes absorbed / min
7.43
44%
Strike defense
51%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
0.32
53%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.42evenly matched on net striking+0.36
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lucas AlmeidaMichael Aswell Jr.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lucas Almeida(6 fights)Michael Aswell Jr.(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+5.8-5.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+91.0-91.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.6-0.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Lucas Almeida
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights6
Michael Aswell Jr.
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach69.0"
Fights3