Flyweight
3 Rounds
Lucas Rocha won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, October 11, 2025·Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Model Prediction: Lucas Rocha wins(80.1%)
Actual result: Lucas Rocha wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lucas Rocha has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Lucas Rocha
Red Corner
VS
Stewart Nicoll
Blue Corner
+102
(50%)
Vegas Odds
-120
(55%)
25
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'3"
Height
5'5"
162.56 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 1 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lucas Rocha
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Clayton Carpenter · Oct 24Stewart Nicoll
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Jesus Aguilar · Aug 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lucas RochaMetricStewart Nicoll
5.09
Strikes / min
3.63
3.67
Strikes absorbed / min
5.84
56%
Strike defense
49%
1.64
TDs / 15 min
1.63
76%
Takedown defense
28%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 3.63 — meaningful gap-2.21
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lucas RochaStewart Nicoll
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lucas Rocha(2 fights)Stewart Nicoll(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-0.00.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.90.9
Lucas Rocha
StanceOrthodox
Height63.0"
Reach64.0"
Fights2
Stewart Nicoll
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights3