Lightweight
3 Rounds
Luis Pena won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, July 6, 2018·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsRichie Smullen: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Luis Pena wins(60.6%)
Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Richie Smullen has 14pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Luis Pena has 48pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luis Pena (53.5%).
- Luis Pena has a 18cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Luis Pena
Red Corner
VS
Richie Smullen
Blue Corner
-380
(79%)
Vegas Odds
+315
(24%)
32
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
5'9"
190.5 cm
Reach
172.72 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luis Pena
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19L
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19W
vs Steve Garcia · Feb 20L
SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20W
vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21Richie SmullenNo prior UFC fights on record.
Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luis PenaMetricRichie Smullen
3.66
Strikes / min
1.98
3.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.26
51%
Strike defense
65%
1.17
TDs / 15 min
8.49
48%
Takedown defense
0%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54evenly matched on net striking-0.28
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luis Pena(8 fights)Richie Smullen(1 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
0.00.0
Luis Pena
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8
Richie Smullen
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights1