Lightweight
3 Rounds
Luis Pena won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 29, 2020·Norfolk, Virginia, USA, USA
Style matchupLuis Pena: Submission grapplervsSteve Garcia: Elusive striker
The grappler must close distance and chain wrestling. The elusive striker keeps space and picks shots.
Model Prediction: Luis Pena wins(60.0%)
Actual result: Luis Pena wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Steve Garcia enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Steve Garcia has 40pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Luis Pena
Red Corner
VS
Steve Garcia
Blue Corner
-270
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+230
(30%)
32
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
6'3"
Height
6'0"
190.5 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luis Pena
oldest →latest
W
vs Steven Peterson · Mar 19W
KOvs Matt Wiman · Jun 19L
vs Matt Frevola · Oct 19L
SUBvs Khama Worthy · Jun 20W
vs Alexander Munoz · Apr 21Steve GarciaW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Melquizael Costa · Dec 23W
KOvs SeungWoo Choi · Jul 24W
KOvs Kyle Nelson · Sep 24W
vs Calvin Kattar · Jul 25W
KOvs David Onama · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luis PenaMetricSteve Garcia
3.66
Strikes / min
5.39
3.12
Strikes absorbed / min
2.12
51%
Strike defense
59%
1.17
TDs / 15 min
0.86
48%
Takedown defense
88%
1.20
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.54Δ 2.73 — meaningful gap+3.27
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luis PenaSteve Garcia
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luis Pena(8 fights)Steve Garcia(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+16.1-16.1
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.549.5
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.649.6
Luis Pena
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights8
Steve Garcia
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights10