Middleweight
3 Rounds
Luke Barnatt won · SUB R2
UFC Event·Saturday, October 26, 2013·Manchester, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Andrew Craig wins(54.6%)
Actual result: Luke Barnatt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
Tale of the Tape
Luke Barnatt
Red Corner
VS
Andrew Craig
Blue Corner
+185
(35%)
Vegas Odds
-200
(67%)
38
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke BarnattL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Collin Hart · Apr 13W
KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14L
vs Sean Strickland · May 14L
vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14L
vs Mark Munoz · May 15Andrew CraigL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Rafael Natal · Jul 12L
vs Ronny Markes · Jan 13W
vs Chris Leben · Jul 13L
vs Cezar Ferreira · Jun 14L
KOvs Lyman Good · Jul 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke BarnattMetricAndrew Craig
4.43
Strikes / min
2.39
3.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
59%
Strike defense
50%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
0.53
63%
Takedown defense
72%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 1.18 — meaningful gap-0.62
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke BarnattAndrew Craig
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Andrew Craig(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-18.918.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+84.0-84.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.5-0.5
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.61.6
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
Luke Barnatt
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6
Andrew Craig
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights7