Middleweight
3 Rounds
Luke Barnatt won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 8, 2014·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Style matchupLuke Barnatt: Pressure fightervsMats Nilsson: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(65.8%)
Actual result: Luke Barnatt wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Barnatt enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Luke Barnatt has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Luke Barnatt
Red Corner
VS
Mats Nilsson
Blue Corner
-430
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+345
(22%)
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'6"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke BarnattL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Collin Hart · Apr 13W
SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13L
vs Sean Strickland · May 14L
vs Roger Narvaez · Nov 14L
vs Mark Munoz · May 15Mats Nilsson
oldest →latest
L
vs Omari Akhmedov · Jan 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke BarnattMetricMats Nilsson
4.43
Strikes / min
2.99
3.87
Strikes absorbed / min
5.62
59%
Strike defense
63%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
3.87
63%
Takedown defense
44%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
2.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 3.19 — meaningful gap-2.63
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke BarnattMats Nilsson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Mats Nilsson(2 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+38.0-38.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-46.446.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-49.749.7
Luke Barnatt
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6
Mats Nilsson
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach—
Fights2