Middleweight
3 Rounds
Roger Narvaez won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, November 22, 2014·Austin, Texas, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Luke Barnatt wins(59.9%)
Actual result: Roger Narvaez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Stance matchup historically favors Roger Narvaez (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Luke Barnatt
Red Corner
VS
Roger Narvaez
Blue Corner
-420
(81%)
Vegas Odds
+375
(21%)
38
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'6"
Height
6'3"
195.58 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke BarnattL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Collin Hart · Apr 13W
SUBvs Andrew Craig · Oct 13W
KOvs Mats Nilsson · Mar 14L
vs Sean Strickland · May 14L
vs Mark Munoz · May 15Roger NarvaezL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Patrick Cummins · Jun 14L
KOvs Elias Theodorou · Mar 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke BarnattMetricRoger Narvaez
4.43
Strikes / min
2.12
3.87
Strikes absorbed / min
3.32
59%
Strike defense
64%
0.63
TDs / 15 min
0.00
63%
Takedown defense
50%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.90
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.56Δ 1.76 — meaningful gap-1.20
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke BarnattRoger Narvaez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Barnatt(6 fights)Roger Narvaez(3 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+50.8-50.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+7.0-7.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.3-1.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+4.0-4.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Luke Barnatt
StanceOrthodox
Height78.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights6
Roger Narvaez
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach—
Fights3