Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Rodolfo Bellato won · KO/TKO R1
UFC Event·Saturday, March 7, 2026·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupLuke Fernandez: Pressure fightervsRodolfo Bellato: Pressure fighter
Two pressure fighters — expect a fast pace and a war of attrition. Fitness decides it.
Model Prediction: Luke Fernandez wins(50.1%)
Actual result: Rodolfo Bellato wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Rodolfo Bellato has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Rodolfo Bellato has 94pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Luke Fernandez
Red Corner
VS
Rodolfo Bellato
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+184
(35%)
30
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'3"
193.04 cm
Reach
190.5 cm
Recent Form
Last 4 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke FernandezNo prior UFC fights on record.
Rodolfo BellatoL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Ihor Potieria · Dec 23D
vs Jimmy Crute · Feb 25L
vs Paul Craig · Jun 25L
vs Navajo Stirling · Sep 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke FernandezMetricRodolfo Bellato
8.14
Strikes / min
5.37
10.17
Strikes absorbed / min
5.86
36%
Strike defense
46%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
1.38
0%
Takedown defense
94%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-2.03Δ 1.54 — meaningful gap-0.49
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke FernandezRodolfo Bellato
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Fernandez(1 fights)Rodolfo Bellato(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+1.5-1.5
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.4-49.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Luke Fernandez
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights1
Rodolfo Bellato
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights5