Middleweight
5 Rounds
Luke Rockhold won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, September 16, 2017·Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA, USA
Style matchupLuke Rockhold: Well-roundedvsDavid Branch: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Luke Rockhold wins(51.9%)
Actual result: Luke Rockhold wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Luke Rockhold enters on a 4-fight losing streak.
- Luke Rockhold threatens submissions; David Branch has lost 40% of fights by sub.
- Luke Rockhold has 22pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Luke Rockhold (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Luke Rockhold
Red Corner
VS
David Branch
Blue Corner
-500
(83%)
Vegas Odds
+400
(20%)
41
Age
44
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'3"
Height
6'1"
195.58 cm
Reach
198.12 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke RockholdL4 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Dec 15L
KOvs Michael Bisping · Jun 16L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Feb 18L
KOvs Jan Blachowicz · Jul 19L
vs Paulo Costa · Aug 22David BranchL2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Rousimar Palhares · Mar 11W
vs Krzysztof Jotko · May 17W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Apr 18L
KOvs Jared Cannonier · Nov 18L
SUBvs Jack Hermansson · Mar 19Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke RockholdMetricDavid Branch
4.10
Strikes / min
1.66
2.68
Strikes absorbed / min
1.91
53%
Strike defense
56%
0.70
TDs / 15 min
2.55
65%
Takedown defense
43%
1.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.42Δ 1.67 — meaningful gap-0.25
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke RockholdDavid Branch
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Rockhold(10 fights)David Branch(9 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+45.5-45.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+343.0-343.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Luke Rockhold
StanceSouthpaw
Height75.0"
Reach77.0"
Fights11
David Branch
StanceOrthodox
Height73.0"
Reach78.0"
Fights9