Middleweight
3 Rounds
Daniel Kelly won · SUB R1
UFC Event·Friday, November 7, 2014·Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, Australia
Style matchupLuke Zachrich: Pressure fightervsDaniel Kelly: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Luke Zachrich wins(52.2%)
Actual result: Daniel Kelly wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Daniel Kelly enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Stance matchup historically favors Daniel Kelly (53.5%).
- Luke Zachrich has a 10cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Luke Zachrich
Red Corner
VS
Daniel Kelly
Blue Corner
-290
(74%)
Vegas Odds
+260
(28%)
44
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
6'2"
Height
6'0"
187.96 cm
Reach
177.8 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Luke Zachrich
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Caio Magalhaes · Apr 14W
vs Guilherme Vasconcelos · Jul 14Daniel KellyL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Chris Camozzi · Nov 16W
vs Rashad Evans · Mar 17L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Jun 17L
vs Elias Theodorou · Nov 17L
KOvs Tom Breese · May 18Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Luke ZachrichMetricDaniel Kelly
4.56
Strikes / min
3.62
4.46
Strikes absorbed / min
4.64
62%
Strike defense
61%
0.74
TDs / 15 min
1.86
80%
Takedown defense
78%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.10Δ 1.12 — meaningful gap-1.02
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Luke ZachrichDaniel Kelly
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Luke Zachrich(3 fights)Daniel Kelly(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.0-2.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-49.849.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-50.050.0
Luke Zachrich
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights3
Daniel Kelly
StanceSouthpaw
Height72.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights10