Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Lyoto Machida won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, February 23, 2013·Anaheim, California, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(58.8%)
Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Lyoto Machida has 18pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Lyoto Machida
Red Corner
VS
Dan Henderson
Blue Corner
-192
(66%)
Vegas Odds
+177
(36%)
47
Age
55
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
5'11"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Dan Henderson
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Gegard Mousasi · Jan 15W
KOvs Tim Boetsch · Jun 15L
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Nov 15W
KOvs Hector Lombard · Jun 16L
vs Michael Bisping · Oct 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lyoto MachidaMetricDan Henderson
2.59
Strikes / min
2.44
1.57
Strikes absorbed / min
2.70
61%
Strike defense
51%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
1.52
75%
Takedown defense
57%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.02Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lyoto MachidaDan Henderson
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Dan Henderson(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.824.8
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-259.0259.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.3-0.3
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Dan Henderson
StanceOrthodox
Height71.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights11