Middleweight
5 Rounds
Lyoto Machida won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, February 15, 2014·Jaragua do Sul, Santa Catarina, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsGegard Mousasi: Submission grappler
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Gegard Mousasi wins(50.4%)
Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Gegard Mousasi enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Lyoto Machida has 16pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Lyoto Machida
Red Corner
VS
Gegard Mousasi
Blue Corner
-210
(68%)
Vegas Odds
+190
(34%)
47
Age
40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Gegard MousasiW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Thales Leites · Feb 16W
KOvs Thiago Santos · Jul 16W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · Oct 16W
KOvs Uriah Hall · Nov 16W
KOvs Chris Weidman · Apr 17Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lyoto MachidaMetricGegard Mousasi
2.59
Strikes / min
3.75
1.57
Strikes absorbed / min
1.21
61%
Strike defense
68%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
1.59
75%
Takedown defense
59%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
1.10
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.02Δ 1.52 — meaningful gap+2.54
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lyoto MachidaGegard Mousasi
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Gegard Mousasi(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+2.5-2.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-203.0203.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+2.4-2.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.4-0.4
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Gegard Mousasi
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights12