Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Phil Davis won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, August 3, 2013·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, Brazil
Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsPhil Davis: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Lyoto Machida wins(61.7%)
Actual result: Phil Davis wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Phil Davis has 11pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
- Phil Davis has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Lyoto Machida
Red Corner
VS
Phil Davis
Blue Corner
-325
(76%)
Vegas Odds
+295
(25%)
47
Age
41
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
200.66 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Phil Davis
oldest →latest
W
SUBvs Wagner Prado · Oct 12W
vs Vinny Magalhaes · Apr 13L
vs Anthony Johnson · Apr 14W
vs Glover Teixeira · Oct 14L
vs Ryan Bader · Jan 15Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lyoto MachidaMetricPhil Davis
2.59
Strikes / min
2.85
1.57
Strikes absorbed / min
1.33
61%
Strike defense
72%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
2.99
75%
Takedown defense
72%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.52
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lyoto MachidaPhil Davis
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Phil Davis(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-61.561.5
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+63.0-63.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.10.1
RedStriker ScoreBlue
0.00.0
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Phil Davis
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach79.0"
Fights11