Light Heavyweight
3 Rounds
Lyoto Machida won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, August 4, 2012·Los Angeles, California, USA, USA
Style matchupLyoto Machida: Well-roundedvsRyan Bader: Wrestler
Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.
Model Prediction: Ryan Bader wins(55.0%)
Actual result: Lyoto Machida wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Lyoto Machida is a KO finisher (63% of wins). Ryan Bader has lost 60% of fights by KO.
- Ryan Bader has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Stance matchup historically favors Lyoto Machida (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Lyoto Machida
Red Corner
VS
Ryan Bader
Blue Corner
-275
(73%)
Vegas Odds
+250
(29%)
47
Age
42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
6'1"
Height
6'2"
187.96 cm
Reach
187.96 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Lyoto MachidaW2 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Luke Rockhold · Apr 15L
KOvs Yoel Romero · Jun 15L
KOvs Derek Brunson · Oct 17W
vs Eryk Anders · Feb 18W
KOvs Vitor Belfort · May 18Ryan BaderW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Phil Davis · Jan 15W
vs Rashad Evans · Oct 15L
KOvs Anthony Johnson · Jan 16W
KOvs Ilir Latifi · Sep 16W
KOvs Rogerio Nogueira · Nov 16Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Lyoto MachidaMetricRyan Bader
2.59
Strikes / min
2.82
1.57
Strikes absorbed / min
1.39
61%
Strike defense
71%
1.21
TDs / 15 min
3.37
75%
Takedown defense
80%
0.40
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.02evenly matched on net striking+1.43
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Lyoto MachidaRyan Bader
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Lyoto Machida(10 fights)Ryan Bader(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-42.742.7
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+77.0-77.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.8-0.8
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.00.0
Lyoto Machida
StanceSouthpaw
Height73.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16
Ryan Bader
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach74.0"
Fights16