Lightweight
3 Rounds
Melvin Guillard won · KO/TKO R2
UFC Event·Saturday, July 27, 2013·Seattle, Washington, USA, USA
Model Prediction: Mac Danzig wins(72.2%)
Actual result: Melvin Guillard wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Melvin Guillard enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Melvin Guillard has 15pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mac Danzig
Red Corner
VS
Melvin Guillard
Blue Corner
+145
(41%)
Vegas Odds
-155
(61%)
46
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'8"
Height
5'9"
177.8 cm
Reach
180.34 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mac DanzigL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Joe Stevenson · Dec 10L
vs Matt Wiman · Oct 11W
vs Efrain Escudero · Apr 12L
vs Takanori Gomi · Nov 12L
vs Joe Lauzon · Dec 13Melvin GuillardL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
SUBvs Jim Miller · Jan 12W
vs Fabricio Camoes · Jul 12L
KOvs Donald Cerrone · Aug 12L
vs Jamie Varner · Dec 12L
vs Michael Johnson · Mar 14Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mac DanzigMetricMelvin Guillard
3.39
Strikes / min
2.96
3.44
Strikes absorbed / min
1.85
57%
Strike defense
66%
1.20
TDs / 15 min
1.30
46%
Takedown defense
61%
0.60
Sub atts / 15 min
0.20
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.05Δ 1.16 — meaningful gap+1.11
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mac DanzigMelvin Guillard
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mac Danzig(7 fights)Melvin Guillard(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-27.427.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+49.0-49.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.9-0.9
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Mac Danzig
StanceOrthodox
Height68.0"
Reach70.0"
Fights7
Melvin Guillard
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach71.0"
Fights11