Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Mackenzie Dern won · SUB R3
UFC Event·Saturday, January 11, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsAmanda Ribas: Wrestler
Wrestler wants to control on top; grappler wants to threaten subs from bottom. Cage position is critical.
Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Mackenzie Dern wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Amanda Ribas has 45pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mackenzie Dern
Red Corner
VS
Amanda Ribas
Blue Corner
+162
(38%)
Vegas Odds
-194
(66%)
33
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'4"
160.02 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mackenzie DernW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Angela Hill · May 23L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Amanda RibasL2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Viviane Araujo · Mar 23L
KOvs Maycee Barber · Jun 23W
KOvs Luana Pinheiro · Nov 23L
vs Rose Namajunas · Mar 24L
KOvs Tabatha Ricci · Jul 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mackenzie DernMetricAmanda Ribas
3.47
Strikes / min
4.26
3.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.29
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
2.05
37%
Takedown defense
82%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.60
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.43 — meaningful gap+0.97
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mackenzie DernAmanda Ribas
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Amanda Ribas(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+6.0-6.0
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-133.0133.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.30.3
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16
Amanda Ribas
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights13