Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Marina Rodriguez won · U-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, October 9, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsMarina Rodriguez: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(56.3%)
Actual result: Marina Rodriguez wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Marina Rodriguez enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Marina Rodriguez has 24pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mackenzie Dern
Red Corner
VS
Marina Rodriguez
Blue Corner
-200
(67%)
Vegas Odds
+170
(37%)
33
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'6"
160.02 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Marina RodriguezL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
vs Virna Jandiroba · May 23W
KOvs Michelle Waterson-Gomez · Sep 23L
vs Jessica Andrade · Apr 24L
vs Iasmin Lucindo · Oct 24L
KOvs Gillian Robertson · May 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mackenzie DernMetricMarina Rodriguez
3.47
Strikes / min
4.51
3.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.01
51%
Strike defense
55%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.27
37%
Takedown defense
61%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.30
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.96 — meaningful gap+1.50
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mackenzie DernMarina Rodriguez
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Marina Rodriguez(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+19.9-19.9
RedLayoff (days)Blue
+28.0-28.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-0.20.2
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.2-0.2
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16
Marina Rodriguez
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights13