Women's Strawweight
5 Rounds
Yan Xiaonan won · M-DEC R5
UFC Event·Saturday, October 1, 2022·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMackenzie Dern: Submission grapplervsYan Xiaonan: Well-rounded
Well-rounded fighters can dictate where this happens. The grappler needs scrambles to find their entries.
Model Prediction: Mackenzie Dern wins(57.8%)
Actual result: Yan Xiaonan wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mackenzie Dern enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Yan Xiaonan has 27pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Mackenzie Dern
Red Corner
VS
Yan Xiaonan
Blue Corner
-260
(72%)
Vegas Odds
+220
(31%)
33
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'4"
Height
5'5"
160.02 cm
Reach
160.02 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mackenzie DernW3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Jessica Andrade · Nov 23L
vs Amanda Lemos · Feb 24W
vs Loopy Godinez · Aug 24W
SUBvs Amanda Ribas · Jan 25W
vs Virna Jandiroba · Oct 25Yan Xiaonan
oldest →latest
L
vs Marina Rodriguez · Mar 22W
KOvs Jessica Andrade · May 23L
vs Zhang Weili · Apr 24W
vs Tabatha Ricci · Nov 24L
vs Virna Jandiroba · Apr 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mackenzie DernMetricYan Xiaonan
3.47
Strikes / min
4.69
3.93
Strikes absorbed / min
3.23
51%
Strike defense
60%
0.93
TDs / 15 min
0.84
37%
Takedown defense
64%
1.10
Sub atts / 15 min
0.00
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
-0.46Δ 1.92 — meaningful gap+1.46
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mackenzie DernYan Xiaonan
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mackenzie Dern(10 fights)Yan Xiaonan(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+17.4-17.4
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-35.035.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-1.71.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
Mackenzie Dern
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights16
Yan Xiaonan
StanceOrthodox
Height65.0"
Reach63.0"
Fights13