Light Heavyweight
5 Rounds
Tonight
Elo1516
Elo1541
Magomed AnkalaevvsBogdan GuskovUFC Prediction
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Guskov · Saturday, July 25, 2026Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
Fight begins in
Style matchup
We select Magomed Ankalaev to win. Informational only—not a guarantee or betting advice.
Magomed Ankalaev
78.9% market-implied
vs Bogdan Guskov (21.1%)
Magomed Ankalaev
59.8% model estimate
Internal research signal — not a betting edge.
Magomed Ankalaev-583 (85.4%)
Bogdan Guskov+416 (19.4%)
Scouting Report
- Bogdan Guskov is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Magomed Ankalaev has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 12pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Magomed Ankalaev has 30pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Tale of the Tape
Magomed Ankalaev
Bogdan Guskov
-583
Vegas Odds
+416
1516
1541
34
33
Orthodox
Orthodox
6'3"
6'3"
190.5 cm
193.04 cm
Recent Form
Magomed Ankalaev
oldest →
KOvs Anthony Smith · Jul 22
KOvs Johnny Walker · Jan 24
vs Aleksandar Rakic · Oct 24
vs Alex Pereira · Mar 25
KOvs Alex Pereira · Oct 25
latestBogdan Guskov
oldest →
KOvs Zac Pauga · Feb 24
KOvs Ryan Spann · Apr 24
SUBvs Billy Elekana · Jan 25
KOvs Nikita Krylov · Jul 25
vs Jan Blachowicz · Dec 25
latestOutput & Defense Comparison
Magomed AnkalaevMetricBogdan Guskov
3.65
Strikes / min
4.57
2.59
Strikes absorbed / min
4.09
56%
Strike defense
44%
0.79
TDs / 15 min
0.00
87%
Takedown defense
57%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.70
Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.
Recent Elo Trajectory
Magomed AnkalaevBogdan Guskov
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Method Projection
KO / TKO58%
Historical win share: Bogdan Guskov earned 75% of wins by KO/TKO.
Submission42%
Historical win share: Bogdan Guskov earned 25% of wins by submission.
Decision0%
Both fighters frequently end fights early.
The Pick
Vegas favorite
Magomed Ankalaev
Odds
-583
Market-implied probability
Magomed Ankalaev 79%
Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.
$100 bet returns
Magomed Ankalaev (model pick · research)$117
Bogdan Guskov$516
79% market-implied · model 60% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638
🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC at -479 · never rewritten
Magomed Ankalaev
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights14
Bogdan Guskov
StanceOrthodox
Height75.0"
Reach76.0"
Fights6