Featherweight
3 Rounds
Mairon Santos won · S-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 8, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupMairon Santos: StrikervsFrancis Marshall: Wrestler
Classic striker-vs-wrestler. The wrestler historically gets the edge if they can close distance and finish takedowns.
Model Prediction: Mairon Santos wins(72.5%)
Actual result: Mairon Santos wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Mairon Santos enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Mairon Santos has 10pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Francis Marshall has 19pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Striker vs grappler stylistic clash — fight location (standing vs ground) typically decides it.
Tale of the Tape
Mairon Santos
Red Corner
VS
Francis Marshall
Blue Corner
-250
(71%)
Vegas Odds
+205
(33%)
25
Age
27
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
5'7"
Height
5'9"
182.88 cm
Reach
182.88 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mairon SantosW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Kaan Ofli · Aug 24W
vs Sodiq Yusuff · May 25W
KOvs Muhammad Naimov · Dec 25Francis MarshallW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
KOvs Marcelo Rojo · Dec 22L
vs William Gomis · Apr 23L
KOvs Isaac Dulgarian · Aug 23W
vs Dennis Buzukja · Aug 24W
SUBvs Erik Silva · Feb 26Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mairon SantosMetricFrancis Marshall
3.33
Strikes / min
3.19
2.24
Strikes absorbed / min
3.45
65%
Strike defense
55%
0.00
TDs / 15 min
2.71
69%
Takedown defense
88%
0.00
Sub atts / 15 min
0.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+1.09Δ 1.35 — meaningful gap-0.26
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mairon SantosFrancis Marshall
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mairon Santos(4 fights)Francis Marshall(6 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+14.6-14.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
0.00.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
+0.7-0.7
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.50.5
Mairon Santos
StanceOrthodox
Height67.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights4
Francis Marshall
StanceOrthodox
Height69.0"
Reach72.0"
Fights6