Flyweight
5 Rounds
Manel Kape won · KO/TKO R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 1, 2025·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsAsu Almabayev: Wrestler
The wrestler can defuse pressure by changing levels and going to the mat.
Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(52.8%)
Actual result: Manel Kape wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Asu Almabayev enters on a 5-fight win streak.
- Manel Kape has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Manel Kape
Red Corner
VS
Asu Almabayev
Blue Corner
-220
(69%)
Vegas Odds
+184
(35%)
32
Age
32
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'4"
172.72 cm
Reach
165.1 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Manel KapeW2 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Dec 22W
vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24W
KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24W
KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25Asu AlmabayevW5 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs CJ Vergara · Mar 24W
vs Jose Johnson · Jun 24W
vs Matheus Nicolau · Oct 24W
vs Jose Ochoa · Jul 25W
SUBvs Alex Perez · Nov 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Manel KapeMetricAsu Almabayev
5.04
Strikes / min
2.31
4.08
Strikes absorbed / min
1.99
57%
Strike defense
53%
0.40
TDs / 15 min
4.46
81%
Takedown defense
44%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
1.50
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.32
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Manel KapeAsu Almabayev
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Manel Kape(10 fights)Asu Almabayev(7 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-24.624.6
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-56.056.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+0.1-0.1
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-1.01.0
Manel Kape
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10
Asu Almabayev
StanceOrthodox
Height64.0"
Reach65.0"
Fights7