Flyweight
3 Rounds
Matheus Nicolau won · S-DEC
UFC Event·Saturday, March 13, 2021·Las Vegas, Nevada, USA, USA
Style matchupManel Kape: Pressure fightervsMatheus Nicolau: Well-rounded
The well-rounded fighter has answers in multiple phases. The pressure fighter needs damage early.
Model Prediction: Manel Kape wins(56.0%)
Actual result: Matheus Nicolau wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Incorrect
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Manel Kape enters on a 3-fight win streak.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Manel Kape is a KO finisher (71% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 50% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).
Tale of the Tape
Manel Kape
Red Corner
VS
Matheus Nicolau
Blue Corner
-130
(57%)
Vegas Odds
+110
(48%)
32
Age
33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
5'5"
Height
5'6"
172.72 cm
Reach
167.64 cm
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Manel KapeW3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs Felipe dos Santos · Sep 23L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24W
KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24W
KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25W
KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →latest
W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Manel KapeMetricMatheus Nicolau
5.04
Strikes / min
3.31
4.08
Strikes absorbed / min
2.98
57%
Strike defense
65%
0.40
TDs / 15 min
1.22
81%
Takedown defense
90%
0.30
Sub atts / 15 min
0.80
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Manel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Manel Kape(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
-45.345.3
RedLayoff (days)Blue
-924.0924.0
RedForm ScoreBlue
-0.80.8
RedStriker ScoreBlue
-2.42.4
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
-0.60.6
Manel Kape
StanceSouthpaw
Height65.0"
Reach68.0"
Fights10
Matheus Nicolau
StanceOrthodox
Height66.0"
Reach66.0"
Fights11