Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Manel Kape enters on a 4-fight win streak.
- Matheus Nicolau enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Manel Kape is a KO finisher (75% of wins). Matheus Nicolau has lost 75% of fights by KO.
- Stance matchup historically favors Manel Kape (53.5%).
Recent Form
Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Manel KapeW4 streak
oldest →L
vs Muhammad Mokaev · Jul 24W
KOvs Bruno Silva · Dec 24W
KOvs Asu Almabayev · Mar 25W
KOvs Brandon Royval · Dec 25W
KOvs Kyoji Horiguchi · Jun 26 Matheus NicolauL3 streak
oldest →W
vs David Dvorak · Mar 22W
KOvs Matt Schnell · Dec 22L
KOvs Brandon Royval · Apr 23L
KOvs Alex Perez · Apr 24L
vs Asu Almabayev · Oct 24 Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Manel KapeMetricMatheus Nicolau
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)+0.96evenly matched on net striking+0.33
Statistical Profile
Career averages · bigger area = stronger across dimensions
Manel KapeMatheus Nicolau
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Manel Kape(10 fights)Matheus Nicolau(10 fights)
Model Feature Differentials
Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.
ELO Rating— Skill rating gap. Larger = bigger experience/performance gap between fighters.
Red +63.3|Blue -63.3
Recent Form— Weighted win-rate over recent fights. Positive = Red on hotter streak.
Red -0.8|Blue +0.8
Striker Score— Striking output & defense composite. Positive = Red has striking edge.
Red -2.4|Blue +2.4
Grappler Score— Takedown & submission composite. Positive = Red has grappling edge.
Red -0.6|Blue +0.6
Layoff— Days since last fight (Red − Blue). Positive = Red has been away longer.
Red -924.0|Blue +924.0
Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage
Strike Breakdown
Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.
Manel KapeTargetMatheus Nicolau
Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)
Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.
Round 1Matheus Nicolau edged it
Sig. strikes2
Takedowns0
Control0:02
7Sig. strikes
2Takedowns
2:24Control
Round 2Manel Kape edged it
Sig. strikes28
Takedowns0
Control0:04
21Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:03Control
Round 3Manel Kape edged it
Sig. strikes31
Takedowns0
Control0:32
27Sig. strikes
0Takedowns
0:04Control
Statistical round count disagrees with the official result — could indicate a contested decision or finish that doesn't follow round-count logic.
