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Middleweight

3 Rounds

Dustin Stoltzfus won · Submission R2

Elo1501

Mansur Abdul-Malik editorial illustration

Elo1508

Mansur Abdul-MalikvsDustin StoltzfusUFC Prediction Result

UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · Saturday, August 15, 2026Philadelphia, USA

Official fight result

Dustin Stoltzfus won

Submission · Round 2 · 4:25

Engine 7.0 was wrong

Pre-fight pick: Mansur Abdul-Malik

If $100 had been placed on our pre-fight pick

Mansur Abdul-Malik at -554 American odds · hypothetical only

−$100 profit

$0 total returned

Style matchupMansur Abdul-Malik: Well-roundedvsDustin Stoltzfus: Wrestler

Well-rounded fighters typically have the tools to neutralize wrestlers if their TD defense is sharp.

Scouting Report

Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.

Dustin Stoltzfus threatens submissions; Mansur Abdul-Malik has lost 33% of fights by sub.
Mansur Abdul-Malik has 37pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
Mansur Abdul-Malik has a 13cm reach advantage.

Tale of the Tape

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Red Corner

Dustin Stoltzfus

Blue Corner

-554

(85%)

Vegas Odds

+399

(20%)

1501

Elo

1508

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

6'2"

Height

6'0"

203.2 cm

Reach

190.5 cm

Recent Form

Last 5 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.

Mansur Abdul-Malik

oldest →

KOvs Dusko Todorovic · Nov 24

KOvs Nick Klein · Feb 25

vs Cody Brundage · Jun 25

SUBvs Antonio Trocoli · Dec 25

KOvs Yousri Belgaroui · Mar 26

latest

Dustin StoltzfusL2 streak

oldest →

SUBvs Punahele Soriano · Dec 23

KOvs Brunno Ferreira · Jun 24

KOvs Marc-Andre Barriault · Nov 24

vs Nursulton Ruziboev · May 25

vs Kelvin Gastelum · Sep 25

latest

Output & Defense Comparison

Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.

Mansur Abdul-MalikMetricDustin Stoltzfus

3.28

Strikes / min

3.30

4.49

Strikes absorbed / min

3.23

46%

Strike defense

47%

1.65

TDs / 15 min

2.08

83%

Takedown defense

46%

0.30

Sub atts / 15 min

1.10

Net striking (SLpM − SApM)

-1.21Δ 1.28 — meaningful gap+0.07

Not enough statistical data to render a radar chart for this matchup.

Recent Elo Trajectory

Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).

Mansur Abdul-Malik(6 fights)Dustin Stoltzfus(10 fights)

Model Feature Differentials

Red − Blue for each engineered feature. Bar leans toward the stronger fighter.Hover a label to see what it measures.

ELO Rating

Red -6.9|Blue +6.9

Recent Form

Red +0.6|Blue -0.6

Striker Score

Red +0.0|Blue -0.0

EVEN

Grappler Score

Red -0.3|Blue +0.3

Layoff

Red -196.0|Blue +196.0

Red Corner advantageBlue Corner advantage

Strike Breakdown

Where the strikes landed. Head accuracy is the single strongest predictor of fight outcomes.

Mansur Abdul-MalikTargetDustin Stoltzfus

By target zone

40% acc · 56%

Head

52% acc · 58%

82% acc · 26%

Body

80% acc · 28%

75% acc · 18%

Leg

86% acc · 14%

By position

49% acc · 65%

Distance

47% acc · 35%

64% acc · 26%

Clinch

64% acc · 33%

38% acc · 9%

Ground

88% acc · 33%

Round-by-Round Scoring (Model)

Statistical round-winner heuristic based on strikes, takedowns, control time, and knockdowns. Not the official judges' scorecard.

Mansur Abdul-Malik rounds

even

Dustin Stoltzfus rounds

Round 1Dustin Stoltzfus edged it

Sig. strikes12

Takedowns0

Control0:00

29Sig. strikes

2Takedowns

1:24Control

Round 2Mansur Abdul-Malik edged it

Sig. strikes22

Takedowns1

Control0:37

14Sig. strikes

0Takedowns

1:38Control

Fight Stats

Totals

34 / 67

Sig Strikes

43 / 70

49%

Sig Str %

60.5%

34 / 68

Total Strikes

61 / 92

1 / 1

TDs

2 / 7

100%

TD %

33%

Sub Att

Rev

0:37

Ctrl Time

3:02

Round-by-Round

Round	Fighter	Sig Str	Total Str	TD	Sub
1	Dustin Stoltzfus	29 / 46	35 / 53	2 / 3	0
1	Mansur Abdul-Malik	12 / 28	12 / 29	0 / 0	0
2	Dustin Stoltzfus	14 / 24	26 / 39	0 / 4	1
2	Mansur Abdul-Malik	22 / 39	22 / 39	1 / 1	0

The Pick

Vegas favorite

Mansur Abdul-Malik

Odds

-554

Market-implied probability

Mansur Abdul-Malik 81%

Model pick shown for research — not a betting edge.

$100 bet returns

Mansur Abdul-Malik (model pick · research)$118

Dustin Stoltzfus$499

81% market-implied · model 60% (research) · vufc_v7_0_20260718_090638

🔒 Pick locked Jul 18, 2026, 9:29 AM UTC · never rewritten

Mansur Abdul-Malik

StanceOrthodox

Height74.0"

Reach80.0"

Fights6

Dustin Stoltzfus

StanceOrthodox

Height72.0"

Reach75.0"

Fights11