Middleweight
3 Rounds
Mantas Kondratavicius won · U-DEC R3
UFC Event·Saturday, March 21, 2026·London, England, United Kingdom, United Kingdom
Model Prediction: Mantas Kondratavicius wins(63.8%)
Actual result: Mantas Kondratavicius wins · Model version: ufc_v4_pure_xgboost_20260517_121258
Correct
Scouting Report
Auto-generated signals worth knowing before you read the deep stats below.
- Antonio Trocoli enters on a 3-fight losing streak.
- Mantas Kondratavicius has 31pp better strike defense — meaningful gap.
- Mantas Kondratavicius has 49pp better takedown defense — controls where the fight happens.
- Antonio Trocoli has a 13cm reach advantage.
Tale of the Tape
Mantas Kondratavicius
Red Corner
VS
Antonio Trocoli
Blue Corner
-750
(88%)
Vegas Odds
+490
(17%)
26
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
6'2"
Height
6'5"
190.5 cm
Reach
203.2 cm
Recent Form
Last 3 fights for each fighter — most recent on the right. Hover any result for the matchup.
Mantas KondrataviciusNo prior UFC fights on record.
Antonio TrocoliL3 streak
oldest →latest
L
KOvs Shara Magomedov · Jun 24L
SUBvs Tresean Gore · Nov 24L
SUBvs Mansur Abdul-Malik · Dec 25Output & Defense Comparison
Rate-normalized career statistics. Bold side has the edge per metric.
Mantas KondrataviciusMetricAntonio Trocoli
4.97
Strikes / min
1.27
1.30
Strikes absorbed / min
5.30
57%
Strike defense
26%
2.80
TDs / 15 min
0.88
91%
Takedown defense
42%
0.90
Sub atts / 15 min
0.40
Net striking (SLpM − SApM)
+3.67Δ 7.70 — meaningful gap-4.03
Statistical Profile
Career averages and model features. Bigger shape = stronger across measured dimensions.
Mantas KondrataviciusAntonio Trocoli
Recent Elo Trajectory
Last 10 fights for each fighter, aligned right (most recent on the right).
Mantas Kondratavicius(1 fights)Antonio Trocoli(4 fights)
Model Feature Differentials (Red − Blue)
RedElo RatingBlue
+50.7-50.7
RedForm ScoreBlue
+1.0-1.0
RedStriker ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
RedGrappler ScoreBlue
+49.7-49.7
Mantas Kondratavicius
StanceOrthodox
Height74.0"
Reach75.0"
Fights1
Antonio Trocoli
StanceOrthodox
Height77.0"
Reach80.0"
Fights4